BPA has completed its annual five year forecast for the suppliers and manufacturers of PCBs (Rigid and Flex) and their corresponding laminates. This is the 31st year of producing this forecast--longer than any other producer of comprehensive worldwide industry forecasts. This year we have made yet more enhancements to the five year forecast. One such enhancement is the creation of an executive summary of demand and production by major manufacturing locations for all years between 2008 and 2013.  Specifically, China, Taiwan and South Korea are now separately reported.

Central to producing the worldwide PCB and Laminate forecasts, is BPA's analysis of electronics production and semiconductor manufacturing. Indeed the correlation of these inputs is illustrated below. Unusually, the value of PCB production has fallen faster during the depression than the value of semiconductors and so, unlike previous depressions, the semiconductor cycle at this point does not have greater amplitude than the PCB curve.

Figure 1: Comparison of World PCB and Semiconductor, 12/12 Growth Curves.

Comparing semiconductor shipments and electronic equipment production, Figure 2 shows the slowing growth in China electronic equipment production through 2008 and 2009.  After bottoming out in the second quarter of 2009, growth has resumed with double digit growth expected for 2010. 

Figure 2: China Electronic Equipment Production, 6/12 Growth Curve.

The growth in electronic equipment production in China will be supported by domestic PCB production with imports mainly from neighbouring Asian countries. The market growth in this region will continue to come at the expense of production in North America and Europe where imports of PCBs have increased year on year since 2002 until 2008 when both production and markets became depressed.